Current Sentiment:
The Asia-Pacific session was very light on economic data. Credit Card Spending from New Zealand printed at 4.8% y/y, its lowest since January 2015. Visitor Arrivals to New Zealand was at 4.1% m/m, which is the highest since October 2015. The Kiwi is relatively flat on the day. Some investment banks have brought forward their expectations of an RBNZ rate cut to next week.

The Aussie dollar rallied 30 pips from lows earlier in the session as iron ore futures sailed higher. The Aussie has since pulled back. NAB Quarterly Business Confidence printed at 4, with the prior revised up to 5.

The main event for the London session includes Retail Sales from the UK where a negative deviation could see downside in sterling. Later we will be listening out for Draghi's language during the ECB Press Conference.

The key data during the London session was Retail Sales from UK which missed estimates substantially for both the headline and ex-fuel figures. Retail Sales Ex-Fuel printed at -1.6% for the month of March. Cable fell nearly 60 pips in the 2 hours post release but has since rallied over 70 pips from lows. As mentioned in the London webinar, price action in sterling is likely to be dictated by referendum polls rather than economic data.

Ahead we have the ECB Press Conference. This could see volatility in euro, but by the same token it could be a non-event.

Trade Call:
Yesterday's trade call was stopped out at breakeven following the recommendation to remove all risk from the trade when we were in 25 pips of profit at the London open. We declined to re-enter Cable on poor Retail Sales due to further Brexit polls favouring the 'stay' camp.

Our trade call for the NY open is to be prepared to grab 50-100 pips on euro in either direction if Draghi says anything market moving.

*New updates to the fundamental section will be left in bold for 24 hours*

USD: CPI for March slightly missed estimates with Core dropping to 2.2% y/y from a prior of 2.3% and for the month, missing estimates at 0.1% versus 0.2% expected. Headline inflation also dropped from prior and missed estimates at 0.9% y/y. Employment figures for March were solid with 215,000 jobs added, a rise of 0.3% in Average Hourly Earnings, and an increase in Participation Rate to 63.0%. Yellen's speech on March 29 was dovish; she stressed caution in raising rates in the context of global risks and lower inflation expectations, this followed a dovish FOMC Statement the week prior.

EUR: A bearish currency fundamentally, however currently trading neutral following upside from Draghi's comments at the March meeting. CPI for March came in as expected for the headline at -0.1% y/y, but beat estimates for the core figure at 1.0% vs expectations of 0.9% and prior of 0.8%. On March 10, the ECB cut all three key interest rates and an increased QE by €20bn per month.

GBP: Fundamentally a slightly bullish currency, however Brexit concerns continued to provide negative sentiment. Average Weekly Earnings for February increased by 1.8%, below expectations of 2.3%, Claimant Count Change also missed expectations, increasing by 6,700 vs an expected decrease of 11,300. For the month of March, Core CPI m/m printed at 0.6%, double the expected 0.3%, and core y/y printed at 1.5% above expectations of 1.3%. Headline CPI also beat market expectations at 0.4% m/m and 0.5% y/y.

AUD: Employment data for March beat estimates at 26.1K vs expected 18.0K for the Employment Change, whilst the Unemployment rate fell to 5.7% vs expectations of 5.9%. The RBA statement released April 5 did not add much new information to the AUD story; the currency remains neutral as the RBA remains on hold and are prepared to ease further if necessary.

NZD: Fundamentally a weak currency given the RBNZ's easing bias, however currently seeing upside for the same reasons as the AUD. CPI for Q1 slightly beat estimates at 0.2% q/q versus expectations of 0.1%. Year-over-year CPI matched estimates at 0.4%, well below the RBNZ's target mid-point of 2%. Excluding petrol prices, CPI rose 0.7% y/y.

CAD:  A neutral currency with sentiment in lock-step with WTI. March Unemployment fell to 7.1% from February's 7.3%.

JPY: Fundamentally a weak currency with chances of further easing. Tokyo CPI Ex-Food & Energy for March was at 0.6% y/y, above expectations of 0.5%. The monthly rise was 0.5%. Nationwide CPI Ex-Food & Energy for February rose 0.8% y/y, above expectations of 0.6%. The BoJ measure remained steady at 1.1% y/y. Daily movements in yen are largely a function of risk sentiment.

CHF: Fundamentally a weak currency, highly correlated with moves in EUR. The franc is fundamentally a weak currency given the SNB's negative interest rates, however it can suddenly rally on safe-haven flows. The SNB regularly recite that the franc is overvalued and they are prepared to intervene to weaken the currency. The franc's direction is difficult to predict due to regular intervention by the SNB.

We will be monitoring levels of support and resistance in unison with any impactful news and the underlying fundamentals in order to find a high probability trade. Support and resistance includes previous highs and lows (horizontal s/r), trendlines, moving averages, fibonacci retracements, daily pivot levels and round numbers. These levels of support and resistance are most effective when there are several of them converging at the same area (confluence).